Even with Mookie having a lesser differential from Trout than Harper, these prior contracts show that Trout is relatively underpaid. The average WAR is 76% of Trouts, while the AAV is 86%. Compared to the other players mentioned, Mookie has had a relatively short career but has splashed with a 6.2 WAR average over his first 6 seasons (without 2020). Mookie averages 30.4 million dollars a year in this contract, about 5 million dollars less than Trout. Betts got a much higher $65 million signing bonus while also getting $365m/12 years. The next contract being discussed was signed mid-season after Trout for a historic amount, which was the Mookie Betts-Dodgers deal. Even with Harper opting for a lower AAV for a longer-term deal, Mike can still be deemed a better deal than Harper. That is 54% of Trout’s production, while still earning 72% of what Trout makes. Again discounting 2020, Harper averaged 4.4 WAR a year over the first 8 seasons of his career. While both are fairly short of the highest average annual value, they are some of the highest total amount values. In Bryce’s deal, he averages $25.4 million, while Trout averages $35.5 million. In the deal, Harper received a similar $20 million in signing bonus as well as $330 million over 13 years. The first comp that will be used is a signing that happened only earlier in the same offseason, the long-term Bryce Harper-Phillies deal. In the second angle Trout will be evaluated through, I compare his contract to others of somewhat similar skill. But while keeping an evaluation of WAR is important, comparing his contract to other high-caliber players is another side that needs to be considered. Keeping in mind that Trout produced an 8.5 WAR over the first year of his contract, this amount continues to look like a bargain for the Angels. Even if one were to assume that Trout would average a 33% decrease in production over the remainder of his new contract, he would still be valued at $43.6 million based on the value of the metric. Now, like any player who ages, his production and skill are sure to decline. Hence, if we were to assume that Trout would at least produce his average levels of play, he would be worth almost $65.1 million in a given year. But truthfully, what is that average worth? How much is a given Win worth to an MLB team? According to Craig Edwards of Fangraphs, 1 WAR in 2020 Free Agency cost roughly $8,000,000. Even through numerous injuries, his production continues to be absurd. To put that into perspective, Trout’s average is a low-end MVP season in any given league. 1 to view each individual season as well as his wRC+ production. Even with a lackluster 2011 campaign, it averages out to 8.13 WAR a year. Discounting 2020, Trout has produced a career 73.2 WAR. Hence, I go to Mike’s overall WAR (Wins Above Replacement). The first angle that Trout will be evaluated is the actual value his sabermetrics produce.
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